Fertility Transition in Bangladesh: Why and How?

Abstract

Bangladesh, a South Asian country with a population of approximately 175.7 million, is undergoing a critical phase of fertility transition. This study examines this phenomenon by analysing the relationship between the total fertility rate and several key determinants, including women’s enrolment in secondary education, their labor force participation, household income, the infant mortality rate, and the use of modern contraceptive methods. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) regression applied with Error Correction model on time-series data from 1980 to 2024, the analysis shows that women’s education, women’s participation in labor force and usage of modern techniques in family planning significantly and negatively influence total fertility rate in long run, while improvement in childhood mortality significantly and positively influences the total fertility rate in long run. In the short run, women's education and usage of modern techniques in family planning show delayed positive influence on total fertility rate, while improvement in childhood mortality shows volatility and women’s participation in labor force does not show any influence. These findings provide important insights for policymakers and stakeholders, underscoring the need to expand daycare facilities, promote birth spacing, and strengthen the effectiveness of population policies.