Impact of Climate Change on Electricity Demand: A Case Study of Pakistan

Abstract

The energy sector is sensitive to changing weather patterns and Pakistan is one of those countries where temperature rise induced by climate change is expected to be above the world average. In this backdrop the present study aims at finding the impact of climate change on electricity demand in Pakistan at the regional and national level. Using monthly data on temperatures to find heating and cooling degree days, the relationship between monthly electricity demand and temperature is explored which is then used to find the impact of projected climate change on electricity demand. The results suggest surging peak loads in summer season due to climatic effect which calls for capacity instalments over and above that needed to cater to rise in electricity demand attributable to economic growth. JEL Classification: Q47, Q54 Keywords: Energy, Climate Change, Electricity Demand, Degree Days, Pakistan