Alternate Scenarios for Population Control in Pakistan: The Issue of Contraceptive Method Mix

Abstract

According to the Sixth and Seventh Five-Year Development Plans the Population Programme was supposed to follow a multisectoral approach to expand its coverage and provide women with alternatives to regulate reproduction. It never emerged in a practical form. As a matter of fact, Pakistan's population programme has always followed a supply-oriented approach assuming that demand exists, but unfortunately the major constraints which inhibited the programme was the poor supply of contraceptives and the lack of consistency in the contraceptive mix. The significance of the method mix lies in the potential impact on population growth rate and the time taken to realise this impact. A recent exercise by Choe (1991) estimates 'ideal' contraceptive mix based on a number of factors, like past and intended fertility, estimated pregnancy risk, and health status at various reproductive ages. The exercise revealed that the observed method mix differed significantly with the ideal mix. It is further argued that the adoption of the ideal mix could bring an early transition in population growth. The current analysis though does not estimate the 'ideal' mix but examines various scenarios to bring down the rapidly growing population.