Wheat Production Under Alternative Production Functions

Abstract

In an earlier study [1, pp.407-415] it was assumed that a linear production function would be the best to depict the relationship between wheat production and explanatory variables in the Punjab. After a careful scrutiny, four of the explanatory variables, viz., area under Mexican Wheat varieties, area under local wheat, fertilizer application and rainfall, were employed to explain varia¬tions in wheat production. As this linear relationship gave a good fit, it was claimed that the equations, derived from 1967-68 to 1971-72 output and input data, can be useful in forecasting wheat production in the Punjab for future years well in advance of actual wheat harvests and, in fact, a forecast of wheat production in the Punjab for 1973-74 was published [2, pp. 106-112], based on the findings of that model. Whether the linear production function related the dependent and inde¬pendent variables in the best possible manner was not tested. The results of our analysis in the present paper indicated that the re-specification of the rela¬tionship will be of little use.1 In addition, in an earlier model the rainfall relevant to wheat production was defined as the total rainfall during the months of November-January of each wheat season. Publication of the article con¬taining that model elicited suggestions that use of seven-month rainfall from July to January (instead of three-month rainfall used in the model) might improve the results of the model. Accordingly, it was decided to test that model using