Impact of Climate Change on Crops’ Productivity across Selected Agro-ecological Zones in Pakistan

Abstract

This study estimates the impact of major climate variables (temperature and rainfall) on crops’ productivity across four agro-ecological zones of Pakistan. The crops selected were rice, wheat, maize, cotton and sugarcane. The study used panel data from 1991 to 2010 and applied panel least square techniques. The results revealed that the effect of climatic variables on crops yield varied across agro climatic zone due to differences in their climate conditions. Temperature and rainfall were the important determinants affecting crops productivity across agro climatic zones of Pakistan. Wheat productivity has been impacted more in Northern Irrigated Plain-a by average temperature and in Northern Dry Mountains by rainfall than the other zones. Rice productivity has been impacted more in Dry Mountains by average temperature and in the Indus Delta by rainfall than other zones. Sugarcane productivity has been impacted more by average temperature and rainfall in Indus Delta than zone IV. Maize productivity has been impacted more by average temperature and rainfall in Northern Dry Mountains than other zones. Finally the study recommends proper mitigative and adaptative strategies to enhance the positive and lessen the adverse impact of climate change on crops productivity across agro climatic zones of Pakistan. JEL Classifications: Q15, Q54, Q57 Keywords: Climate Change, Agro-ecological Zones, Rainfall, Temperature, Productivity