Population Change in the Wake of Agricultural Improvement: Lessons for Pakistan

Abstract

Since the early 1960s, the mandates of agricultural researchers have been rooted in a "neo-Malthusian" theory of "demographic transition". Population increase in rural South Asia, in particular, had by 1960--63 reached the point where food supply per person could no longer be maintained simply by increases in cultivated area. Food supply was therefore to be raised through higher-yielding varieties of staples. Such HWs were to increase food availability enough to keep ahead of population increase. Extra food availability per person was supposed to reduce population-induced risks of undernutrition and famine, creating a "breathing space" while general socioeconomic development brought about lower fertility. HYV s have raised food output substantially in many parts of Asia and Latin America, and many advocate HYVs as the main approach to agricultural development in Africa. Surely, many poor people's lives have been saved by the extra employment income, and perhaps by the cheaper food, generated by HYVs. Yet the incidence of poverty in South Asia has probably not changed much since 1960, and the underpinnings of the original HYV strategy have been largely discredited.