Assessing the Role of Money versus Interest Rate in Pakistan

Zafar Hayat, Muhammad Nadim Hanif

Abstract


We empirically examine the role of monetary aggregate(s)
vis-à-vis short term interest rate as monetary policy instruments, and
the impact of State Bank of Pakistan’s transformation towards the latter
on their relative effectiveness in terms of inflation in Pakistan. Using
indicators of ‘persistent changes’ in the underlying behaviours of
variables of interest, we found that broad money consistently explains
inflation in (i) monetary, (ii) transitory and (iii) interest rate
regimes. Though its role has receded whilst moving from the transition
to the interest rate regime, the interest rate instrument seems to be
positively related to inflation, a phenomenon commonly known as price
puzzle. In light of these findings, we recommend that the role of money
should not be completely de-emphasised. JEL Classification: E31, E52
Keywords: Monetary Policy Instruments, Price Puzzle, ARDL,
Pakistan

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30541/v59i1pp.1-14

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